If You Want to Win Efficiently in Baccarat, Bet on the Banker and Use the Monte Carlo Method
Previously, I explained that if you want to earn efficiently in baccarat, it’s best to bet on the banker and use the Monte Carlo method.
However, baccarat comes in two main types: regular baccarat and no-commission baccarat. Therefore, it’s necessary to examine how the outcomes differ depending on which version you’re playing.
By reading this article, you’ll clearly understand the differences between regular baccarat and no-commission baccarat.
Even if you’re just getting started with baccarat and aren’t sure what sets these two versions apart, this article provides an easy-to-follow explanation.
Differences Between Regular Baccarat and No-Commission Baccarat
Let’s begin with no-commission baccarat. In regular baccarat, a winning banker bet typically pays 1.95 times your stake, since a 5% commission is deducted from the standard 2x payout. In contrast, no-commission baccarat pays 2x the stake when the banker wins—but there’s a caveat: if the banker wins with a total of 6 points, the payout is halved.
In other words, the key difference is how the commission is applied. Regular baccarat takes a small percentage (5%) on every winning banker bet, whereas no-commission baccarat applies a larger penalty all at once, but only in certain situations (i.e., banker wins with 6).
Simulation Results in No-Commission Baccarat
Based on this distinction, I ran a simulation using no-commission baccarat under the following conditions:
- Starting bankroll: $5,000
- Initial bet: $1
- Betting system: Monte Carlo method
Skipping the detailed play-by-play, the result was positive: I won 4 out of 5 rounds, thanks to the good compatibility between baccarat and the Monte Carlo method. The profit came to +21 dollars.
However, because the Monte Carlo method increases the bet size after each loss, the maximum bet size ballooned to $52 during the test. In such a situation, having 50% of that large amount deducted as commission (when the banker wins with a 6) feels disproportionately expensive and risky.
In fact, the one loss out of the five simulations happened because the banker won with a 6, which caused the Monte Carlo sequence to break.
From this, it’s clear that being charged a small commission gradually (regular baccarat) results in less damage compared to losing half the bet in one blow (no-commission baccarat).
Simulation Results in Regular Baccarat
With that in mind, I ran the same simulation again—this time with regular baccarat and the same conditions.
This time, I was able to successfully complete all five cycles using the Monte Carlo method without any issues. Even when a cycle extended longer than expected, I had enough funds in reserve to see it through without breaking the sequence.
Strategy Recommendations Based on These Findings
Based on these experiments, the strategy of betting on the banker and using the Monte Carlo method can be quite effective. However, even when things are going well, it’s best to cash out around the fourth round, rather than pushing your luck into the fifth or sixth. This helps prevent a sudden loss that could wipe out earlier gains.
Even if a strategy has a high win rate, it’s not foolproof, so it’s important not to be overconfident, even with past success.
No matter what system you’re using, the golden rule in gambling is to lock in your profits while you’re ahead—ideally by the third or fourth game.
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