Which Should You Bet On to Win Efficiently in Baccarat: Player or Banker? (Part 1)

Baccarat is a game where you bet on whether the Player or the Banker will win, and the side whose card total is closer to 9 is the winner.

Each side is typically dealt two cards, but depending on the situation, a third card may be drawn.

Thanks to these relatively simple rules, baccarat is popular among a wide range of players—from beginners to professionals. Excluding side bets like “Tie” and other optional areas, the basic game offers close to a 50% win rate, making it compatible with a variety of betting strategies.

However, even with popular systems like the Martingale or roadmap-based pattern analysis, many players still struggle to win consistently. In such cases, it may be wise to reconsider your approach and not stick rigidly to your favorite system—whether it’s the Martingale or the Paroli—but instead evaluate the best pairing between baccarat and betting strategy.

Like any form of gambling, losses are a natural part of the game. That’s why using a system like the Monte Carlo method, which is designed with the expectation of occasional losses, can be a rational choice.
Although baccarat is a simple game where you just choose between betting on the Player or the Banker, selecting which side to bet on based on their characteristics—rather than guessing blindly—can help improve your win rate.

The key differences between the Player and Banker sides lie in the rules for drawing the third card and the payout ratio when they win.

Let’s start with the rules for drawing a third card.
If either side has a total of 8 or 9 from the first two cards (a “natural”), no additional cards are drawn. Also, if both sides have totals of 6 or 7, no third cards are dealt—both sides stand.

However, if the Player’s total is 5 or less, the Player draws a third card.

The Banker’s third card rules are more complex. The Banker will draw a third card if any of the following conditions are met:

1. The Banker’s total is 0 to 2
2. The Banker’s total is 3, and the Player’s third card (if drawn) is not an 8
3. The Banker’s total is 4, and the Player’s third card is 2 to 7
4. The Banker’s total is 5, and the Player’s third card is 4 to 7
5. The Banker’s total is 6, and the Player’s third card is 6 or 7

As for payouts:

• A winning Player bet pays 2x (1:1)
• A winning Banker bet pays approximately 1.95x, as a 5% commission is typically deducted

If you look only at the payout, betting on the Player might seem more profitable. But think carefully.

In gambling, it’s standard practice for the lower-probability outcomes to have higher payouts to balance the risk.
In other words, the slightly reduced payout for Banker bets suggests that the Banker side has a marginally higher chance of winning.